State of venture capital

Last year, Michael Burry, the legendary fund manager who famously profited from shorting the US housing market in 2008, bet more than $1.6 billion on a Wall Street crash by shorting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Nothing happened.

This year, Warren Buffett’s cash reserves reached a record $276.9 billion as Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stock holdings in Apple. Some view it as a routine adjustment, while others speculate that Buffett perceives an overheated, overvalued market.

Everyone talks about a soft landing, but warning signs are flashing and the world seems to be teetering on a delicate balance. Is there something we’re missing? Is there an unseen factor at play?

“What’s going on in the market?”

1. Macro Crossover

2024 has been a year of mixed signals. Wall Street swings between celebrating AI-driven gains and bracing for selloffs sparked by underwhelming job reports and inflation fears. While GDP growth shows resilience, warning signs persist: the inverted yield curve and the Sahm Rule hint at a potential recession and job losses. Optimism and uncertainty remain in a constant tug-of-war.

2. New World Order

Geopolitical tensions are at a post-Cold War high. While we are seeing the most active conflicts since the end of World War 2, over 4 billion people are heading to the polls in 70+ countries. Conflict is reshaping the global economy, fragmenting supply chains, and driving nations to rethink their dependencies. Are we entering a new era of protectionism?

3. Climate Resilience

Where do you live? Will your city still be inhabitable in the next few decades? Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it's here. With 2023 marking the hottest year on record, global temperatures are already nearing the critical 1.5°C threshold. From more frequent power outages and skyrocketing insurance costs to shorter ski seasons and devastating wildfires, climate change is affecting every aspect of our lives.

4. The AI Revolution

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the world, promising to boost productivity, drive innovation, and fuel economic growth. As AI becomes an integral part of daily life, investors are pouring billions into the technology. But as the frenzy grows, one can’t help but wonder—are we reliving the dot-com era?

Access Full 2024 Report:

1. Macro Makeover

One thing has become evident – we are in the midst of a new macro regime. Unlike the patterns we’ve seen for the last 30 years, today's landscape is shaped by central banks grappling with the necessity to maintain tight policies in response to mounting inflationary pressures. We’re witnessing a transition from demand-driven shocks to a macro environment dominated by supply constraints.

2. Recessionary Ripples

Following stubborn inflation rates and recent regional bank failures, the winds of change are blowing through the financial markets, ushering in a new macro regime marked by supply-driven constraints and ongoing inflationary pressures. We are seeing the global economy slow and become more divergent as the year comes to an end.

3. New World Order

With Ukraine under fire, an ongoing Israel-Hamas war, and strained U.S.-China relations, the geopolitical stage is undergoing a dramatic restructuring, giving rise to a world characterized by fragmentation, the construction of new economic blocs and the realignment of supply chains. The fact is that the world we live in is no longer the same, we’re seeing a distinct departure from the post-Cold War era of globalization and geopolitical stability.

4. The AI Revolution

Amidst the evolving economic landscape, Artificial Intelligence has emerged with promises to boost productivity, foster innovation, and drive economic growth. It isn’t a matter of whether we will feel its effect, but rather when. AI is here to stay.

“I call it America First. This is the policy that built this country, and this is the policy that will save our country.”

Donald J. Trump

Following President-elect Donald J. Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris, the financial world witnessed an immediate response. In just one week, the S&P 500’s value surged by $1.9 trillion, pushing stocks to record highs. The U.S. dollar strengthened globally and Bitcoin achieved unprecedented highs.

Wall Street is preparing for more government spending, lighter regulation, bigger deficits, and accelerating growth under a Trump administration and a Republican-led Congress.