trumponomics 2.0
President Donald Trump is back in the White House, becoming the first president to lose re-election and return to power four years later since Grover Cleveland in 1893. Trump's second-term agenda is set to both dismantle previous policies and build new ones, revisiting and expanding upon his earlier initiatives. He has made numerous claims and promises, many of which are easier said than done, or require further action than simply stating them.
In this section, we examine President Trump’s most recent statements and promises, analyzing their feasibility and impact on the economy and the financial industry.
6TH Week of Presidency
Trump’s Push for Peace: Charging for the Russia-Ukraine War
One of Trump’s first major foreign policy moves has been to take a direct role in coordinating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, his approach has sparked debate, with critics pointing to the limited involvement of European nations and Ukraine itself in the negotiations. Trump has repeatedly asserted that the war “would have never started if I was President”.
On Monday, February 24, Trump highlighted the Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal between the U.S. and Ukraine, stating on X (formerly Twitter) that the agreement “will be signed very soon!” According to Trump, the deal is intended to help the U.S. recoup “the tens of billions of dollars and military equipment sent to Ukraine” while simultaneously boosting Ukraine’s economy.
Trump has claimed that the U.S. has spent $350 billion on the war, but official data tells a different story. According to the U.S. Ukraine Response Oversight, Congress has allocated $183 billion in aid to Ukraine, which includes military assistance and humanitarian support. Additionally, approximately $58 billion of that funding has gone directly into the U.S. defense industry, reinforcing domestic weapons production and defense investments.
Cleaning the House remains a top priority for the President
Citing concerns over politicization under the previous administration, President Trump has ordered the termination of all remaining "Biden-era" U.S. attorneys in an effort to "restore confidence in the justice system." This directive has led to a wave of firings and resignations in recent weeks.
While some argue that replacing U.S. attorneys from a prior administration is standard procedure, reports indicate that many dismissals specifically targeted officials involved in the investigation and prosecution of the Capitol attack (CBS, 2025). This has raised concerns about whether the Justice Department’s independence is at risk.
An independent Department of Justice is an essential part of a functioning democracy. Its role is to enforce the law impartially, to provide legal leadership in federal crime fighting and national security, and, most importantly, serve as the institution where American citizens look for the Rule of Law (CBS, 2025).
5TH Week of Presidency
While some argue that replacing U.S. attorneys from a prior administration is standard procedure, reports indicate that many dismissals specifically targeted officials involved in the investigation and prosecution of the Capitol attack (CBS, 2025). This has raised concerns about whether the Justice Department’s independence is at risk.
An independent Department of Justice is an essential part of a functioning democracy. Its role is to enforce the law impartially, to provide legal leadership in federal crime fighting and national security, and, most importantly, serve as the institution where American citizens look for the Rule of Law (CBS, 2025).
Cleaning the House remains a top priority for the President
Citing concerns over politicization under the previous administration, President Trump has ordered the termination of all remaining "Biden-era" U.S. attorneys in an effort to "restore confidence in the justice system." This directive has led to a wave of firings and resignations in recent weeks.
Trump’s Push for Peace: Charging for the Russia-Ukraine War
One of Trump’s first major foreign policy moves has been to take a direct role in coordinating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, his approach has sparked debate, with critics pointing to the limited involvement of European nations and Ukraine itself in the negotiations. Trump has repeatedly asserted that the war “would have never started if I was President”.
On Monday, February 24, Trump highlighted the Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal between the U.S. and Ukraine, stating on X (formerly Twitter) that the agreement “will be signed very soon!” According to Trump, the deal is intended to help the U.S. recoup “the tens of billions of dollars and military equipment sent to Ukraine” while simultaneously boosting Ukraine’s economy.
Trump has claimed that the U.S. has spent $350 billion on the war, but official data tells a different story. According to the U.S. Ukraine Response Oversight, Congress has allocated $183 billion in aid to Ukraine, which includes military assistance and humanitarian support. Additionally, approximately $58 billion of that funding has gone directly into the U.S. defense industry, reinforcing domestic weapons production and defense investments.
4TH Week of Presidency
The United States’ New Era of Trade Policy
President Donald Trump has unveiled the United States’ new trade policy through a post on X (formerly Twitter), emphasizing that the U.S. has been treated unfairly by other countries in trade.
If “friends or foes” believe the U.S. imposes high tariffs, they “just have to reduce the tariff they have on the US.” For instance, the European Union currently imposes a 10% tariff on auto imports, whereas the U.S. tariff stands at just 2.5% (Reuters, 2025).
This statement comes amid an ongoing tariff war with Mexico, Canada, Colombia, China, and several European nations, a dispute that began even before Trump took office. As a result, the aluminum, automotive, agricultural, retail, and technology industries have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks.
On February 17th, the administration announced a new 25% tariff on imported automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals (Reuters, 2025), already fueling market speculation and consumer uncertainty. While the President’s goal is to incentivize domestic manufacturing, the reality is that higher import tariffs will lead to increased costs in key industries—expenses that will ultimately be passed on to consumers.
As trade tensions continue to escalate, concerns over economic stability, inflation, and global trade relations remain. For more news on Trump, tariffs, and rising prices in the United States, check out the latest edition of our weekly newsletter AlphaInisghts: Is a Bond Market Crisis Looming? 📉⚠️💰
Trump Asserts U.S. Will Reclaim Panama Canal
In his inaugural speech, President Donald Trump declared his intent to reclaim the Panama Canal, stating, “China is operating the Panama Canal. And we didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” The canal is a vital trade and economic hub, facilitating 6% of global trade and 40% of U.S. trade, making its strategic significance undeniable (U.S. Senate, 2025). Given ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Trump administration has accused Panama of unfairly favoring China and claimed the country is ceding control of key infrastructure to Beijing.
However, there is no evidence to support the claim that China controls the canal’s operations. The Panama Canal Authority (ACP), an independent entity under the Panamanian government, is responsible for managing, maintaining, and overseeing all operations of the canal. While Chinese companies, including Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings, have a presence in port operations—handling container loading, unloading, and fuel supply (BBC, 2025)—the ACP retains full authority over the canal’s management and navigation (CNN, 2025).
A lingering question remains regarding the extent of the Chinese government's influence over private Chinese firms operating in Panama. The Panama Canal Authority is an independent group that was designated by Panama’s government to manage, operate, and maintain the Canal. The Authority’s functions include infrastructure maintenance, financial management, environment and resource protection, and vessel navigation across the Canal.
This initiative has been a cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy, aimed at strengthening China’s influence across Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia through infrastructure investments and coordinated financial, economic, and trade policies—a counterweight to U.S. influence. Beijing has denied any involvement in the Panama Canal’s operations and characterized Panama’s withdrawal from the initiative as a result of “U.S. coercion”.
The Economic Implications of a Smaller Government and Mass Layoffs
In an effort to reduce “the unnecessary footprint of the government,” the Trump administration—led by Elon Musk as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—has implemented significant layoffs across key federal agencies. Among those affected are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the IRS. These cuts will undoubtedly impact public health, safety, and the efficiency of critical services such as air travel, but the ripple effects extend far beyond these immediate concerns.
President Trump claims this move could save the government “hundreds of billions of dollars.” However, estimates suggest that even with a 10% reduction in the federal workforce—approximately 2.4 million people—annual savings would only amount to $25 billion, making just a 1% dent in total government spending (Investopedia, 2025). Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to rise sharply, particularly in states where the federal government is a major employer. For example, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate could surge from 2.8% to 9.6% (Urban Institute, 2025).
Beyond job losses, market uncertainty among investors may increase, especially in regulated industries like biotech, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare, due to instability within the FDA and CDC. A downsized IRS could lead to tax return delays, reduced federal revenue, and a rise in tax evasion. The broader economic consequences—including job losses, market uncertainty, and weakened regulatory oversight— could destabilize key industries and reduce consumer demand, compounding concerns over inflation and financial instability.
2ND AND 3RD Week of Presidency
Trump Claims the U.S. Doesn’t Need Canada, Data Tells a Different Story
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Donald Trump dismissed Canada’s economic significance to the United States, stating, "We don’t need them to make our cars, we make a lot of them. We don’t need their lumber because we have our own forests... We don’t need their oil and gas, we have more than anybody."
However, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) contradicts this claim. In 2024, the agency reported that Canada remains the largest single source of U.S. petroleum and crude oil imports. In 2022 alone, Canada supplied 52% of total U.S. petroleum imports and 60% of crude oil imports, far outpacing Mexico, the second-largest supplier.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith responded to Trump’s comments, warning that a 25% tariff on Canadian products—a measure Trump has previously considered—would significantly impact U.S. consumers. "Americans will pay a lot more for gas," she stated, arguing that the U.S.’s high demand for oil and limited supply sources contradict Trump’s assertion that the country can afford to cut off Canadian imports.
With energy prices already a key concern for American voters, the economic and political implications of Trump's stance on Canada are likely to remain a contentious issue.
Tariffs on Mexican and Canadian Imports Paused for One Month
Following a conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday, February 3rd, both leaders agreed to temporarily suspend the planned 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which were set to take effect at midnight on February 4th.
As part of the agreement, President Sheinbaum committed to deploying 10,000 members of the National Guard to curb the flow of fentanyl from Mexico into the United States and to enhance border security efforts. In a statement, President Trump also noted that Mexico would take additional steps to prevent illegal immigration. Meanwhile, President Sheinbaum announced that the U.S. has agreed to collaborate on reducing the trafficking of high-powered weapons into Mexico.
The temporary suspension of tariffs provides a window for further negotiations on trade and security cooperation between the three countries
Similarly, tariffs on Canadian imports will be postponed due to the implementation of a $1.3 billion border initiative aimed at reducing fentanyl trafficking. The plan includes new technology, additional personnel at border crossings, and coordinated efforts to combat organized crime, fentanyl distribution, and money laundering.
Trump Signs Executive Order to Adapt Guantánamo Bay to Detain High-Priority Criminal Migrants
On Wednesday, January 29th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the expansion of Naval Station Guantánamo Bay to its full capacity to accommodate what he describes as "the worst criminal illegal aliens threatening the American people." The order states that the facility will provide additional detention space for high-priority criminal migrants unlawfully present in the United States, with Trump claiming it has 30,000 available beds.
The decision faces significant legal, logistical, and human rights challenges, particularly given the status of Guantánamo Bay as Cuban territory under U.S. Supreme Court precedent. Current international and migration laws prohibit the transfer of foreign nationals to the facility without Cuba's consent (Politico, 2025). Additionally, concerns over costs, legal jurisdiction, and detainee rights further complicate the implementation of this directive.
Cuban Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, strongly condemned the move, stating on X (formerly Twitter) that the U.S. decision to detain migrants "in an enclave where it created torture and indefinite detention centers" demonstrates "contempt for human dignity and International Law." He further asserted that the territory remains "outside the jurisdiction of U.S. courts."
The executive order is expected to face legal challenges and diplomatic tensions as it moves forward.
Trump Alleges USAID Funds Stolen
On Thursday, February 6th, President Donald Trump took to X (formerly Twitter) to accuse the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) of funneling billions of taxpayer dollars to media outlets as a political “payoff.” In his post, Trump singled out Politico, alleging it received $8 million, and questioned whether The New York Times had also been a recipient:
Despite the bold claims, no evidence has been presented to substantiate them. The White House recently published a list of alleged "waste and abuse" of taxpayer funds through USAID projects, reinforcing Trump’s long-standing opposition to international spending. However, The Dispatch (2025) reported that USAID’s actual payments to Politico amounted to just $44,000 over two years, covering information subscriptions—far from the alleged multi-million-dollar figure.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, now leading the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is pushing for deep federal budget cuts, with USAID as a primary target. According to BBC (2025), Musk is considering the agency’s closure, aligning with Trump’s broader effort to reduce international aid spending.
With investigations likely to follow, the controversy adds another layer to ongoing debates over media credibility, government transparency, and the future of U.S. foreign aid.
What's the Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal about?
President Donald Trump has proposed a Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, aiming to secure U.S. access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources. The agreement would grant the United States 50% of revenues from Ukraine’s mineral and natural resource exports in exchange for past and potential future military support against Russia. Under the deal, U.S. companies would gain 50% ownership of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, a move designed to strengthen American control over critical supply chains. Key resources covered include rare earth elements, uranium, lithium, oil, and natural gas (CSIS, 2025).
Proponents argue that reducing dependence on foreign suppliers—particularly China—is essential for U.S. technological advancement and national security (Foreign Policy, 2025). However, the deal is controversial, with experts warning that Ukraine’s war-damaged infrastructure may pose significant challenges to large-scale mining operations and have raised concerns that it could tie the U.S. to long-term military commitments in the region.
As of Wednesday, February 26, Ukraine has announced its acceptance of a preliminary agreement with the U.S. However, a key consideration remains: an estimated 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources are currently under Russian control, according to Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine and the National Institute of Strategic Studies, citing data from the first half of 2024 (Reuters, 2025). Notably, no detailed breakdown of these figures has been provided
Check out the latest edition of our weekly newsletter AlphaInisghts: The True Cost of Tariffs 💸⚠️📉
1st Week of Presidency
Trump’s Stargate Project, a $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure
“The largest AI project by far in history.” - Trump
Last Tuesday, President Trump, alongside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, SoftBank chair Masayoshi Son, and Oracle founder Larry Ellison, announced the formation of Stargate, a new $500 billion American company. Funding would come from the technology arm of the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund. $100 billion was allocated for AI infrastructure in the United States during the first year, “creating 100,000 American jobs almost immediately” by building data centers, boosting electricity capacity, chip production, and other resources as part of an effort to “maximize access to AI" and to prevent capital flow to China. The announcement came just days before DeepSeek, a China AI startup, launched its AI model, shocking the market and disrupting the Artificial Intelligence industry by claiming it can compete with other established models like ChatGPT, at a fraction of the cost.
Deportation Dispute Escalates into Trade War: 25% tariff increase to Colombia
Last Sunday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro denied the entry of US military planes carrying Colombian immigrants back into his country arguing that “the United States cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals” and that he would only take citizens back with dignity and in civilian planes. President Trump responded by imposing 25% tariffs on all Colombian goods coming into the U.S., which would go up to 50% in one week; President Petro retaliated with a respective 25% increase on US products. Washington’s tariff measures are now on hold due to a reached agreement and Colombia is now accepting deportation flights back into the country.
“The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay… Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again. President Trump …expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States," a White House statement said.
Trump says he will ‘demand’ that interest rates come down and has pledged cheaper prices
Since the start of his campaign, President Trump has made a bold promise to reduce inflation. At this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump pledged to lower oil prices, and then, “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world.”
Trump later explained that reducing energy costs would help lower inflation, which would, in turn, “automatically bring the interest rates down.” When asked if he expects the Fed to listen to him on rates, Trump confidently replied: “Yeah.”
The fact is, it's not that simple. While lowering oil costs, as he demandedin Davos last week, and deregulation could help bring inflation down, other policies may counteract his intended effects on prices. For instance, lowering interest rates and imposing or increasing goods from Mexico, Canada, and China could drive prices up by increasing domestic demand and making it harder for businesses to source inputs from abroad. Similarly, stricter immigration laws and large-scale deportations could impact industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, leading to higher wages and rising costs. (TWP, 2024)
Trump threatens 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods
During his campaign last year, President Trump pledged to issue an Executive Order on January 20th to authorize “all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States”, as a response to illegal immigration and drug flow into the United States. While the tariff was scheduled to take effect on February 1st, upon taking office last Monday, Trump instead signed a Memorandum on Trade, instructing officials to review trade and tariff policies to address what he described as “unfair and unbalanced trade.”
An economic model created to project the potential damage of such tariffs determined that they would cause a reduction in the GDP and an increase in inflation, especially making cars, car parts, gas, food, and alcoholic beverages more expensive to the American consumer.
Truth vs. Trumponomics
Truth vs. Trumponomics
What's the Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal about?
President Donald Trump has proposed a Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, aiming to secure U.S. access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources. The agreement would grant the United States 50% of revenues from Ukraine’s mineral and natural resource exports in exchange for past and potential future military support against Russia. Under the deal, U.S. companies would gain 50% ownership of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, a move designed to strengthen American control over critical supply chains. Key resources covered include rare earth elements, uranium, lithium, oil, and natural gas (CSIS, 2025).
Proponents argue that reducing dependence on foreign suppliers—particularly China—is essential for U.S. technological advancement and national security (Foreign Policy, 2025). However, the deal is controversial, with experts warning that Ukraine’s war-damaged infrastructure may pose significant challenges to large-scale mining operations and have raised concerns that it could tie the U.S. to long-term military commitments in the region.
As of Wednesday, February 26, Ukraine has announced its acceptance of a preliminary agreement with the U.S. However, a key consideration remains: an estimated 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources are currently under Russian control, according to Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine and the National Institute of Strategic Studies, citing data from the first half of 2024 (Reuters, 2025). Notably, no detailed breakdown of these figures has been provided